Is our government following a precise strategy or simply sailing from port to port?

If there is one thing that makes me angry it is having to attend a work meeting (internal, with a customer or a supplier) without knowing who will attend and what will be on the agenda, and – in doing so – leaving to much space for improvisation by all concerned.
But don’t misunderstand me. Knowing how to improvise is very important, but when you can avoid it at the workplace it is usually better due to a matter of organization and optimizing of time and resources.

Well, if this applies to a simple business meeting, it will apply even more so for the productive organization of an enterprise which should – in my opinion – play ahead by months and months. It is naturally clear that the imponderable variable has to be factored into the equation.

I’ll start with this aspect because

I am starting to seriously doubt the fact that our government is taking decisions regarding the economy of the country based on a clear strategy. My impression is that it is simply “living each day as it comes”.

Now I am exaggerating (intentionally exaggerating), but it almost seems that some important decisions (starting from which enterprises have to temporarily close and for how long) are taken overnight on the basis of the latest data on deaths and infections.
This is not to say that taking these kinds of decisions on the basis of data relating to deaths and infections is wrong. Quite the contrary. It is essential, absolutely essential.

But I will say that the government should be more clear and transparent with regard to the strategy it is adopting. Indicating and explaining in more detail, on the basis of which data it is taking certain decisions and, especially, with what objectives (timing and number of infections).

Otherwise it is very hard to believe that a short, medium or long term strategy actually exists.

I would like to focus on this point, because I am extremely worried. For everyone’s health, there’s no doubt about it. But also for the economic situation of all of us: orders are dropping, many projects have been suspended and most investments are on hold. I think it is clear to everyone by now that

the economic consequences of an almost total lockdown will be disastrous.

Just yesterday Confindustria predicted a 6% drop in GDP for 2020, but only if the health crisis is resolved by May. “Every extra week of the regulatory lockdown of productive activities, according to the current parameters – it explained – could cost a further percentage of the Gross Domestic Product of at least 0.75%”.

In other words, a disaster.

Health comes first and foremost and I, as I have already stated, do not intend to put economic wealth before the good health of the population. That I would never do. But I will say that, in many aspects, the health of the people is closely linked to the economic conditions, so it is therefore critical for all of us to at least understand what we are being asked to face in the near future, and receive more information on the government’s plans and objectives.

That said,

nobody has a crystal ball to read the future, but current technology, big data and mathematics now allow us to make more than reasonable predictions.

We will know more about the virus and the trend of infections (including that during the last ten days of almost total lockdown ). We know the number of those who have recovered, the number of deaths due to lack of ICU capacities and the number of units that the facilities have been able to create. And so on.
It seems to me that the elements required to perform a more precise analysis are now available. Analyses that would provide a more precise calculation of how long it will be necessary to maintain this situation of almost total lockdown.

Locking down almost everything for 15 days to see how it goes, considering then whether or not to extend this lockdown period is, in my mind, a strategy that can not work from an economic point of view. Perhaps from a health point of view, it does,